Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.240721 2.366195 2.501813 2.660622 2.843295 3.049175 3.302297
2025-08-10 2.072151 2.221415 2.388469 2.592186 2.838225 3.132031 3.520148
2025-08-17 1.985347 2.150774 2.340535 2.578927 2.877790 3.251706 3.777197
2025-08-24 1.921000 2.097180 2.303021 2.567569 2.909161 3.353295 4.012161
2025-08-31 1.870416 2.054357 2.272416 2.557880 2.935630 3.443301 4.234191
2025-09-07 1.843010 2.036146 2.268381 2.578019 2.998118 3.582696 4.544024
2025-09-14 1.776370 1.966169 2.195426 2.502906 2.923505 3.515646 4.507877
2025-09-21 1.746119 1.939258 2.174497 2.493468 2.936523 3.574280 4.682904
2025-09-28 1.706251 1.898506 2.133740 2.454643 2.904230 3.559632 4.723711
2025-10-05 1.707878 1.909033 2.157952 2.502710 2.996358 3.739987 5.139522
2025-10-12 1.719100 1.931292 2.197182 2.571793 3.121840 3.983505 5.728975
2025-10-19 1.701259 1.915462 2.185352 2.568496 3.137502 4.045220 5.951372
2025-10-26 1.686366 1.903717 2.179397 2.574387 3.169240 4.140063 6.276680
2025-11-02 1.645321 1.857003 2.125356 2.509572 3.087570 4.029191 6.093731
2025-11-09 1.626394 1.838354 2.108059 2.496224 3.084826 4.056436 6.247220
2025-11-16 1.609500 1.821755 2.092770 2.484723 3.083538 4.084500 6.404185
2025-11-23 1.594344 1.806917 2.079219 2.474844 3.083580 4.113460 6.565456
2025-11-30 1.590786 1.806850 2.085171 2.492754 3.127710 4.225129 6.970697
2025-12-07 1.554746 1.763533 2.031561 2.422161 3.026025 4.055997 6.554227
2025-12-14 1.542548 1.751310 2.019932 2.412703 3.023092 4.073592 6.675573
2025-12-21 1.520745 1.726109 1.990184 2.375943 2.974556 4.002168 6.532275
2025-12-28 1.529634 1.741247 2.015373 2.420068 3.058641 4.187405 7.170661
2026-01-04 1.545240 1.765342 2.053094 2.483588 3.177554 4.452627 8.183296